Nearly two billion people around the world were called to vote in a democratic election in 2024 (1,638, 843, 115, to be exact, according to the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance). The number may be larger still if one includes two parliamentary elections in Greece in the summer of 2023, and looks forward to early and regularly scheduled elections internationally in the first half of 2025.
To commemorate this astounding development, during the first week of December 2024 the Dukakis Center at ACT hosted a hybrid series of round table discussion sessions on the institution of political analysis globally. The goal of these sessions was to ask where fellow citizens go for information and what they consume prior to and after an election; to consider how useful and impactful this information may be; and to speculate on the future of the genre of political analysis going forth. How, and how well, do we talk to and with others about politics?
The series was inspired, as revealed by Dukakis Center Director David Wisner, by coverage in the French mainstream media of the results of flash legislative elections in France in June and July 2024. The thinking was that audiences might want to go beyond facile commentary on the implications of these or those election results. (During his tenure as Chair of the International Relations program at ACT, Dr. Wisner had once floated the idea of adding a seminar in political analysis to the course catalog.)
The series began on December 2 with a lively in-person gathering at the Daios Hotel in downtown Thessaloniki, with a focus on elections in Greece, in the EU, and in the US. Featured speakers Sotiris Serbos (Universities of Thrace and Athens) and Alkman Granitsas (formerly Wall Street Journal), both of whom also have recent experience in campaign management, considered the production and consumption of, and the market for, political analysis. In addition to extended discussion, the audience was invited to take an in-house poll designed by ACT’s own Nikos Petridis on their preferred sources of and general satisfaction with political analysis.
The following two evenings Dr. Wisner hosted special episodes of Dukakis Center Live on Anixneusis Web-TV. The first examined elections in the UK, the US, and throughout the EU, with Rikard Jozwiak (Radio Free Europe), author of the “Wider Europe” newsletter; Dimitris Papadimitriou (University of Manchester) and James Quirk (American University). The second focused on the diplomatic and foreign policy implications in the US and abroad of the plethora of elections in 2024. John Koenig, former US Ambassador to Cyprus, and Andrew Miller, until a few weeks ago Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Israeli-Palestinian Affairs, contributed to a 90-minute survey of election analysis.
Mr. Jozwiak drew attention to what he called a “cacophony” of voices and actors, all working in their respective bubbles -- academics, think tankers, representatives of the mainstream and alternative media, pollsters, and others. Several speakers underlined a growing gap between a new and an old political communications order. Ambassador Koenig and Assistant Secretary Miller worried that the focus of analysis had become overly skewed toward messaging and outcomes as opposed to processes and institutions.
Conferees were asked about what the American journalist Mike ALlen has dubbed the “shards of glass” media environment, and to assess recent calls by Democratic officials in the United States to find “shortcuts” to reaching voters, which implies bypassing professional analysts altogether. How did speakers view this development? Professor Quirk was relatively optimistic that a new “mosaic” of forms and voices would emerge; while older panelists practiced in diplomatic or mainstream media reporting were less sanguine. All expressed concern over the results of an extensive survey of some 1300 American voters conducted by Data for Progress on “news attentiveness,” which revealed that half of those polled do not consume mainstream media news at all; the finding echoed observations by various panelists about the fractured nature of news consumption around the world. Jenifer Rubin of the Washington Post had put it this way in the context of American politics: “only a certain stratum of Americans prioritize learning about politics.” Or, as an anonymous source put it, “voters do not think like political analysts.”
Did deliberations over three days offer any insight into the relative health of democratic regimes around the world? One may have come away with mixed impressions. Professor Quirk noted that engagement and turnout among his students at American University was close to 80%. Professor Pappadimitriou was less enthusiastic about students in his university in the UK. ACT’s Dr. Wisner related an instance where study abroad students attending classes at ACT were more interested in “activism” than traditional politics. Ambassador Koenig feared that the decisions by American policy makers over the past few decades may actually have “set back” democracy and rule of law worldwide.
There was a little more by way of consensus about what the future might hold, although the mood was clearly not optimistic. Professor Papadimitriou called for academic programs which fostered life skills and critical engagement. Ambassador Koenig acknowledged that the time was ripe for generational change in leadership. Mr. Joswiak concluded his contribution succinctly. “Listen a bit more, talk a bit less.”
The series of events brought to a close a multi-year focus on voting, elections, and democracy at the Dukakis Center, going back to the Center’s landmark conference on political reform in November 2011. The recent spate of elections globally helped call to the fore research and teaching strengths among ACT faculty past and present, particularly current Americanists Lambrini Nassis, Tina Mavrikos, Joseph Michael Gratale, and David Wisner.
The Center’s diverse audiences have been appreciative. One observer wrote, “An absolutely brilliant show this evening… great moderator… the two panelists were articulate and enlightening on so many topics. Congratulations to you all.” A fellow panelist echoed this appreciation for the organizing savvy of the Dukakis Center team: “Thanks for organizing this and for the expert moderation… I really learned a lot.”
As the year draws to a close, the Dukakis Center will be active one final time, as co-sponsor with Transparency International and the Peace Journalism Laboratory of a conference on “Mainstream Media and Democracy” on December 18 at the Aristotle University of Thessaloniki Law School. Dr. Wisner will be a featured panelist.
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